Could the Avalanche and Bo Horvat be a trade fit? Breaking down pros and cons

May 26, 2024

The Avalanche addressed one need this week, adding a depth forward in Matt Nieto. Colorado acquired him and 2018 first round pick Ryan Merkley from San Jose in exchange for Martin Kaut, picked five spots ahead of Merkley in 2018, and Jacob MacDonald.

But there’s potentially bigger business still to be done for the Avalanche. They could benefit from adding an impact middle-six forward before the March 3 deadline, ideally at the second-line center position. Vancouver’s Bo Horvat, who has 31 goals in the first 48 games, is the top name on the market. He won’t come cheap for the team who acquires him, but a steep price might be worth it for the Avalanche, who are looking for a second-consecutive Stanley Cup.

The Athletic’s Peter Baugh and Harman Dayal, who cover the Avalanche and Canucks, respectively, break down if the teams could be a trade match by the time the deadline comes around.

What’s led to Horvat’s career year, and is it sustainable?

Dayal: Horvat’s evolved into a high-end finisher and elite goal scorer the last couple of years, particularly because of his dominance in the bumper position on Vancouver’s top power-play unit. He’s a versatile scorer, equally capable of dominating the net front area with tips and rebounds as he is uncorking a wicked shot off the rush.

With that said, the 53-goal pace he’s on this season is clearly an outlier. He’s shooting 21.8 percent this season which is significantly higher than his career average of 14 percent. We’re already seeing signs of a possible slowdown as he’s notched two goals over his last nine games.

Horvat’s scoring trajectory reminds me of Chris Kreider. Kreider could consistently score at a 30ish-goal pace before a massive breakout to score 52 last season. That wasn’t repeatable but Kreider’s on pace for 36 goals this season. That’s the kind of range I’d expect Horvat to continue clicking at moving forward.

Bo Horvat was struggling. Still feeling the after effects of COVID, his performance dipped and the criticism rose.

Luke Schenn recommended he give Adam Oates a call, and the rest is history.

Inside how Horvat became on the NHL’s most lethal goal scorers: https://t.co/fUPBOiSxKp

— Thomas Drance (@ThomasDrance) December 26, 2022

What would make him a fit in Colorado?

Baugh: The Avalanche have a bonafide top-line center in Nathan MacKinnon, but they have missed Nazem Kadri’s 2C production since he signed with Calgary. Alex Newhook wasn’t able to grab the spot at the start of the season, and though the 21-year-old’s game has progressed of late, playing second-line center is likely too big of an ask this early in his career. J.T. Compher is a good player having a career-best season, and he’s the team’s current 2C. Evan Rodrigues has filled in nicely, too, and could be an option when the team is fully healthy, but he’s playing top-line wing at the moment.

But Horvat would be an upgrade over all of those players. Colorado would make a move like that to try to get over the top.

If the Avalanche were to land Horvat and enter the playoffs fully healthy, their lineup would be formidable. The forward lines could look something like this:

Artturi Lehkonen-Nathan MacKinnon-Mikko Rantanen
Gabriel Landeskog-Bo Horvat-Valeri Nichushkin
Matt Nieto-J.T. Compher-Evan Rodrigues
Andrew Cogliano-Alex Newhook-Logan O’Connor

In terms of star power and depth, that lineup is similar to the one that won the Stanley Cup in 2022. The fit makes sense — the price might not.

What would the Canucks want for Horvat?

Dayal: Young prospects and players who are close to making an NHL impact, especially if they’re centers or right-shot defenders. They’ll definitely want two or three pieces in a package. I know Canucks fans have salivated at the idea of Bowen Byram in the past, but I don’t think that’s realistic.

The Avs don’t have a deep prospect system so my guess is that the package would have to start with Newhook as the primary piece. He’s still really young, is already established as a full-time NHLer and has a lot of untapped upside as a center with his speed and offensive skill. Newhook would represent a legit shot at developing a future 2C to replace the gaping hole Horvat will be leaving behind.

I don’t know this for sure, but my guess based on the Avs’ otherwise thin prospect pool is that it would be very difficult to work out a trade to Colorado if Newhook isn’t included as part of the package coming back.

Would that be too steep a price?

Baugh: The Avalanche will have to ask themselves how much of their future they’re willing to give up to significantly increase their odds of winning another Stanley Cup. Could they put Newhook and a draft compensation package together and blow the Canucks away? Sure. Would it be wise? Likely not. Moving Newhook would leave Colorado with next to no centers other than MacKinnon under contract for next season. Compher and Rodrigues will be unrestricted free agents, as will Horvat. It would warp the Avalanche of any certainty up the middle, which is risky given the tight salary cap.

The Avalanche have been hesitant to give up future first-round picks in the past, but perhaps they would consider changing approaches this deadline. The team’s prospect pool is thin but not nonexistent. Jean-Luc Foudy is having a breakout year as a 20-year-old in the AHL, and there’s also 2021 first-round pick Oskar Olausson. Sean Behrens is the team’s top defensive prospect, but it’s hard to see Colorado giving him up after trading away defensemen Justin Barron and Drew Helleson last deadline.

What type of money would Horvat want in an extension?

Dayal: Before his big boom this season, Horvat’s market value seemed like it’d include a cap hit figure starting with 7. The market for top-six centres is always lucrative. Horvat’s reputation is sterling around the league and his comparables are strong.

Horvat’s market value has now likely eclipsed $ 8 million per year. His career counting stats are very similar to Tomas Hertl, who signed a long-term extension at an $8.137 million cap hit. Hertl’s career high was 35 goals, a number that Horvat should smash this year. Perhaps he’d take a bit less than that, on the right team, for a chance to win. But any way you slice it, he’s going to get paid a huge ticket.

There are all kinds of teams interested in Timo Meier.

It’s not just contenders like Toronto or Carolina looking at him. @PierreVLeBrun says the Sabres have talked to the Sharks about Meier, too.

Which other players are generating the most trade buzz?https://t.co/u1et0lfZc6

— The Athletic NHL (@TheAthleticNHL) January 25, 2023

How much could Colorado offer?

Baugh: The Avalanche would perhaps be more willing to part with big-time trade chips if they are confident they could re-sign Horvat. But could they? It would be difficult.

Colorado has 14 contracts on the books for a combined $70.275 million next season. If the salary cap goes up $1 million this offseason, that will put it at $83.5 million for 2023-24. That will leave Colorado with $13.225 million to fill out the roster.

Newhook and Byram are both restricted free agents. It’s impossible to know how much of a bump they’ll get — so much depends on end-of-season and playoff performance, as well as health in Byram’s case — but let’s say they cost a combined $4 million, which might be low, especially if one or both want to sign long term instead of taking a bridge deal. Still, that leaves $9.225 million left to spend in this hypothetical. If Colorado wants to carry the minimum number of contracts (20), it would still have to add four players. Let’s say the team signs three to an average of $800,000 average annual value contracts, which is just above the league minimum. That takes up $2.4 million, leaving only around $6.825 million of space for the last spot, plus any other players the team would want to add.

That means the Avalanche almost certainly won’t be able to fit Horvat under their 2023-24 salary cap unless they clear other contracts to make room, so it’s tough to see the sides agreeing to anything in-season. Given the team’s past hesitancy to pay high prices for rentals, that raises questions about if acquiring Horvat is feasible, though he would be an excellent fit.

(Photo: Bob Frid / USA Today)

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